Guinea-Bissau
VintagesWEO April 2026WDI pulled 25 October 2026IDS 2025 (December 2025 release)WPP 2024, medium variantLast refreshed 25 October 2026About the data
The identity
GDP growth is output-per-worker growth plus growth in the employment-to-working-age ratio plus working-age population growth. All three are annual growth rates, so the bar adds.
- Output per worker+1.41%
- Employment-to-working-age ratio+0.34%
- Working-age population (15-64)+2.97%
- Observed GDP growth+4.67%
- Implied (the three terms summed)+4.72%
| Overlay (beside the bar, never inside it) | Value |
|---|---|
| Wage employment share | 24.3% |
| Non-agricultural employment share | 38.3% |
| Employment rate, women | 59.1% |
| Employment rate, men | 67.2% |
| Youth not in employment, education or training | 13.2% |
| Productivity growth, within-sector | not yet fetched |
| Productivity growth, between-sector | not yet fetched |
| Wage employment source | ILO-modelled-employees |
Generative-AI exposure: 1.7 percent of employment in the most exposed occupations (gradient 4 of the ILO's 2025 index). This is the book's estimate, not an ILO figure: the index's occupation gradients weighted by labour-force survey employment in two-digit occupation groups, 2022. Beside the bar, never inside it: it is a share, not a growth rate.
Population path
- Population, 20242.2 million
- Population, 20503.4 million
- Population, 21004.7 million
- Median age19.2 years
- Total fertility rate3.76 births per woman
- Dependency ratio72.3 per 100 of working age
Output
Levels are the IMF’s April 2026 estimates for 2025, with the World Bank’s most recent published year standing in where the IMF publishes no figure for this country. Observed growth is over the same window as the identity above, and the forecast runs five years out.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| GDP | $2.6bn |
| GDP per capita | $1,311 |
| GDP at PPP | $6.7bn |
| Observed GDP growth | +4.67% |
| GDP growth, five-year forecast | +4.60% |
| Urban share | 46.6% |
| Informal employment share | 94.2% |
| Largest city | Bissau |
| Largest city population | 612 thousand |
| Largest city population, 2050 | 994 thousand |
External debt
- Multilateral$0.7bn
- Other bilateral$0.1bn
- Other private$0.5bn
- Eurobonds, of which bonds, inside other private$0.5bn
- Paris Club, of which owed to Paris Club members, across all three$0.0bn
- China, of which owed to China, across all threenot yet fetched
- Total external debt stock$1.4bn
- IDS 2025, owed to Chinanot yet fetched
- BU CLA, cumulative commitmentsnot yet fetched
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Debt service due 2026-2030 | $0.5bn |
| Eurobonds outstanding | not yet fetched |
| Restructuring status | none |
| Collateralized or resource-backed debt | not yet fetched |
| S&P rating | not yet fetched |
| Moody's rating | not yet fetched |
| Fitch rating | not yet fetched |
Exports and the balance sheet
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Top three exports | Fruits and nuts (excluding oil nuts), fresh or dried (SITC 057): 72.1%; Wood simply worked, and railway sleepers of wood (SITC 248): 13.3%; Gold, non-monetary (excluding gold ores and concentrates) (SITC 971): 6.7% |
| Commodity dependence | 98.6% |
| Remittances received | $0.2bn |
| Foreign direct investment | $0.0bn |
| Official development assistance | $0.2bn |
| AfCFTA status | ratified |
| PAPSS member | no |
| Afrobarometer lived poverty index | not yet fetched |
Data quality
Last census 2009. Last GDP rebase not recorded. Last labour-force survey 2022. SPI 47.5. Reports to the IMF under e-GDDS. Confidence: low.The rule: high means a census within fifteen years, an SPI score of 70 or better and a labour-force survey within five years; one failure is medium, two or more failures or a census before 2000 is low, and the flag is left uncomputed when one of the three inputs is itself missing (the rule, and the reasons to argue with it, on the About the data page).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| WPP estimate basis | not recorded |
| Climate vulnerability | high |
| Fragility | FCS: institutional and social fragility |
Census: III RGPH 2009, population 1,520,830, omission rate 4.6 per cent. The fourth census, RGPH-4, was first announced for April 2025, but UNFPA's country report describes 2025 as the year of cartography and preparation with the final enumeration set to begin in late January 2026 (https://guinea-bissau.unfpa.org/en/guinea-bissau-annual-report-2025); no completed enumeration or published count was sourced, so 2009 stands. LFS: the most recent survey carrying a full employment module is the Inquerito Harmonizado sobre as Condicoes de Vida dos Agregados Familiares (EHCVM) edition 2, fielded 2021-2022 by INE with the World Bank and the UEMOA Commission; ILOSTAT's latest survey-based observations for Guinea-Bissau (NEET and informality) are 2022, which matches. The last dedicated employment survey was the ERI-ESI (https://www.stat-guinebissau.com/Menu_principal/Pubica%C3%A7%C3%B5es/emprego/Rapport_Synthse.pdf). Recorded as 2022. Rebase: not sourced.
The shelf
The latest reports on this country from the Fund and the Bank. Each line under “what it argued” is the publisher's own summary, quoted, not a paraphrase; where a summary says nothing the line is blank. A country with no Article IV consultation in the last three years says so, with the report that establishes it.
| Report | What it argued |
|---|---|
| IMF Article IV2025 Article IV Consultation, Eighth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Rephasing of…Ch. 21 | “This paper presents Guinea-Bissau’s 2025 Article IV Consultation, Eighth Review under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Rephasing of Access, Extension of the Arrangement, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review.”IMF, abstract of Country Report No. 2025/167 |
| IMF Selected IssuesSelected IssuesCh. 21 | “This Selected Issues paper focuses on domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) in Guinea-Bissau.”IMF, abstract of Country Report No. 2025/168 |
Sources
Numbers on this card were last refreshed on 25 October 2026.
| Release behind this card | Last pulled |
|---|---|
| African Union AfCFTA signature and ratification register | 25 October 2026 |
| Africapolis 2025 | 25 October 2026 |
| ILO modelled estimates, November 2025 | 25 October 2026 |
| IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026 | 13 September 2026 |
| ND-GAIN Country Index, 2026 release | 25 October 2026 |
| PAPSS Payments Network Coverage sheet | 25 October 2026 |
| UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant | Not recorded |
| UNCTADstat merchandise trade matrix | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank Group FY26 list of fragile and conflict-affected situations | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank Statistical Performance Indicators | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank World Development Indicators | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows | 25 October 2026 |
| hand-entered | Not pulled |
| derived here from the three identity terms | Not pulled |
| Field on this page | Where the number comes from |
|---|---|
| AfCFTA status | African Union AfCFTA signature and ratification register (22/05/2026) |
| Climate vulnerability | ND-GAIN Country Index, 2026 release, 2024 observation |
| Commodity dependence | UNCTADstat merchandise trade matrix, 2025 observation |
| Debt service due 2026-2030 | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 (2026-2030) |
| Dependency ratio | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Employment rate, men | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Employment rate, women | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Employment-to-working-age growth | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Eurobonds held by creditors | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| External debt stock | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Foreign direct investment | World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows, 2025 observation |
| Fragility | World Bank Group FY26 list of fragile and conflict-affected situations |
| GDP | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2025 observation |
| GDP at PPP | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2025 observation |
| GDP growth, five-year forecast | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2030 observation |
| GDP per capita | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2025 observation |
| Identity window | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| IMF dissemination standard | Hand-entered, cited to www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/07/08/pr24262-g… |
| Implied GDP growth | derived here from the three identity terms |
| Informal employment share | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2022 observation |
| Largest city | Africapolis 2025, 2025 observation |
| Largest city population | Africapolis 2025, 2025 observation |
| Largest city population, 2050 | Africapolis 2025, 2050 observation |
| Last census | Hand-entered, cited to www.stat-guinebissau.com/nada41/index.php/catalog/10 |
| Last labour-force survey | Hand-entered, cited to microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/6274 |
| Median age | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Non-agricultural employment share | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Observed GDP growth | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2024 observation |
| Official development assistance | World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows, 2023 observation |
| Output per worker growth | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Owed to multilaterals | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Owed to other bilaterals | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Owed to other private creditors | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Owed to Paris Club creditors | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025, 2024 observation |
| PAPSS member | PAPSS Payments Network Coverage sheet (June 2026) |
| Population, 2024 | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Population, 2050 | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Population, 2100 | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Remittances received | World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows, 2024 observation |
| Restructuring status | Hand-entered, cited to clubdeparis.org/en/sites/clubdeparis/accueil/pays… |
| Statistical Performance Indicators score | World Bank Statistical Performance Indicators |
| Top three exports | UNCTADstat merchandise trade matrix, 2025 observation |
| Total fertility rate | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Urban share | World Bank World Development Indicators, 2025 observation |
| Wage employment share | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Wage employment source | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Working-age population growth (15-64) | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Youth not in employment, education or training | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2022 observation |
Card schema african-economic-future/country_card/v1, built 2026-10-25. The release behind each key, and the day each was last pulled, are listed on the About the data page, and the record behind this page is one of the fifty-four in cards.csv and cards.json.
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