Kenya
The country card for Kenya: the growth identity’s three terms, population and output, external debt by creditor and the data-quality flag, each with its source.
KEN
Nairobi · East Africa
Confidence: high
Growth-pole chapters
Pole types
demographic engine, productivity platform
Regional communities
EAC, COMESA, IGAD, CEN-SAD
Currency
KES (KSh), floating
Official languages
sw, en
VintagesWEO April 2026WDI pulled 25 October 2026IDS 2025 (December 2025 release)WPP 2024, medium variantLast refreshed 25 October 2026About the data
The identity
GDP growth is output-per-worker growth plus growth in the employment-to-working-age ratio plus working-age population growth. All three are annual growth rates, so the bar adds.
- Output per worker+2.83%
- Employment-to-working-age ratio-1.17%
- Working-age population (15-64)+2.94%
- Observed GDP growth+4.62%
- Implied (the three terms summed)+4.61%
| Overlay (beside the bar, never inside it) | Value |
|---|---|
| Wage employment share | 35.0% |
| Non-agricultural employment share | 53.5% |
| Employment rate, women | 58.6% |
| Employment rate, men | 68.9% |
| Youth not in employment, education or training | 18.5% |
| Productivity growth, within-sector | +2.50% |
| Productivity growth, between-sector | -0.07% |
| Wage employment source | ILO-modelled-employees |
Generative-AI exposure: 1.4 percent of employment in the most exposed occupations (gradient 4 of the ILO's 2025 index). This is the book's estimate, not an ILO figure: the index's occupation gradients weighted by labour-force survey employment in two-digit occupation groups, 2019. Beside the bar, never inside it: it is a share, not a growth rate.
Population path
- Population, 202456.4 million
- Population, 205083.6 million
- Population, 2100104.2 million
- Median age19.8 years
- Total fertility rate3.17 births per woman
- Dependency ratio66.1 per 100 of working age
Output
Levels are the IMF’s April 2026 estimates for 2025, with the World Bank’s most recent published year standing in where the IMF publishes no figure for this country. Observed growth is over the same window as the identity above, and the forecast runs five years out.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| GDP | $136.5bn |
| GDP per capita | $2,558 |
| GDP at PPP | $405.0bn |
| Observed GDP growth | +4.62% |
| GDP growth, five-year forecast | +4.84% |
| Urban share | 32.2% |
| Informal employment share | 86.5% |
| Largest city | not yet fetched |
| Largest city population | not yet fetched |
| Largest city population, 2050 | not yet fetched |
External debt
- Multilateral$20.0bn
- Other bilateral$8.1bn
- Other private$7.5bn
- Eurobonds, of which bonds, inside other private$6.6bn
- Paris Club, of which owed to Paris Club members, across all three$3.3bn
- China, of which owed to China, across all three$5.4bn
- Total external debt stock$42.9bn
- IDS 2025, owed to China$5.4bn
- BU CLA, cumulative commitments$10.0bn
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Debt service due 2026-2030 | $18.8bn |
| Eurobonds outstanding | not yet fetched |
| Restructuring status | none |
| Collateralized or resource-backed debt | not yet fetched |
| S&P rating | not yet fetched |
| Moody's rating | not yet fetched |
| Fitch rating | not yet fetched |
Exports and the balance sheet
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Top three exports | Tea and mate (SITC 074): 16.7%; Crude vegetable materials, n.e.s. (SITC 292): 9.4%; Coffee and coffee substitutes (SITC 071): 8.7% |
| Commodity dependence | 72.6% |
| Remittances received | $5.1bn |
| Foreign direct investment | $1.1bn |
| Official development assistance | $2.6bn |
| AfCFTA status | ratified |
| PAPSS member | yes |
| Afrobarometer lived poverty index | 1.40 |
Data quality
Last census 2019. Last GDP rebase 2021. Last labour-force survey 2024. SPI 73.4. Reports to the IMF under e-GDDS. Confidence: high.The rule: high means a census within fifteen years, an SPI score of 70 or better and a labour-force survey within five years; one failure is medium, two or more failures or a census before 2000 is low, and the flag is left uncomputed when one of the three inputs is itself missing (the rule, and the reasons to argue with it, on the About the data page).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| WPP estimate basis | not recorded |
| Climate vulnerability | low |
| Fragility | not on the FCS list |
Census: 2019 KPHC, enumerated August 2019, first volume released 4 November 2019. Rebase: KNBS Revision and Rebasing of National Accounts report, published September 2021, base year 2016 (2016 level revised up 8.1 per cent to KSh 7,594.1bn). LFS: Quarterly Labour Force Survey under the Kenya Continuous Household Survey Programme; 2024 quarterly reports.
The shelf
The latest reports on this country from the Fund and the Bank. Each line under “what it argued” is the publisher's own summary, quoted, not a paraphrase; where a summary says nothing the line is blank. A country with no Article IV consultation in the last three years says so, with the report that establishes it.
| Report | What it argued |
|---|---|
| IMF Article IV2023 Article IV Consultation-Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility…Ch. 10Ch. 21Ch. 37 | “This paper discusses 2023 Article IV Consultation, Sixth Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangements, Requests for Augmentations of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Applicability of Performance ...”IMF, abstract of Country Report No. 2024/013 |
| IMF Selected IssuesSelected IssuesCh. 21 | “This Selected Issues paper examines tax policy and administrative changes in Eastern African Community (EAC) countries with a view to benchmark Kenya’s experience and draw lessons for future tax reforms.”IMF, abstract of Country Report No. 2024/014 |
| World Bank country updateKenya Economic Update : Sustaining Macroeconomic Gains, Advancing Fiscal ReformsCh. 21 | “Economic growth moderated slightly in 2025, with real GDP expanding by 4.6 percent compared with 4.7 percent in 2024. This was despite favorable macroeconomic conditions such as easing inflation, accommodative monetary policy, and recovering private sector credit.”World Bank, abstract of report no. 212477 in Documents & Reports |
Sources
Numbers on this card were last refreshed on 25 October 2026.
| Release behind this card | Last pulled |
|---|---|
| African Union AfCFTA signature and ratification register | 25 October 2026 |
| Afrobarometer Round 9 lived-poverty index | 25 October 2026 |
| Boston University Chinese Loans to Africa database, 2000-2024 | 25 October 2026 |
| GGDC Economic Transformation Database | 25 October 2026 |
| ILO modelled estimates, November 2025 | 25 October 2026 |
| IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026 | 13 September 2026 |
| ND-GAIN Country Index, 2026 release | 25 October 2026 |
| PAPSS Payments Network Coverage sheet | 25 October 2026 |
| UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant | Not recorded |
| UNCTADstat merchandise trade matrix | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank Group FY26 list of fragile and conflict-affected situations | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank Statistical Performance Indicators | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank World Development Indicators | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows | 25 October 2026 |
| hand-entered | Not pulled |
| derived here from the three identity terms | Not pulled |
| Field on this page | Where the number comes from |
|---|---|
| AfCFTA status | African Union AfCFTA signature and ratification register (22/05/2026) |
| Afrobarometer lived poverty index | Afrobarometer Round 9 lived-poverty index, 2021 observation |
| Chinese loan commitments, cumulative | Boston University Chinese Loans to Africa database, 2000-2024 |
| Climate vulnerability | ND-GAIN Country Index, 2026 release, 2024 observation |
| Commodity dependence | UNCTADstat merchandise trade matrix, 2025 observation |
| Debt service due 2026-2030 | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 (2026-2030) |
| Dependency ratio | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Employment rate, men | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Employment rate, women | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Employment-to-working-age growth | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Eurobonds held by creditors | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| External debt stock | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Foreign direct investment | World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows, 2025 observation |
| Fragility | World Bank Group FY26 list of fragile and conflict-affected situations |
| GDP | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2025 observation |
| GDP at PPP | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2025 observation |
| GDP growth, five-year forecast | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2030 observation |
| GDP per capita | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2025 observation |
| Identity window | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| IMF dissemination standard | Hand-entered, cited to www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/12/20/pr18492-k… |
| Implied GDP growth | derived here from the three identity terms |
| Informal employment share | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2019 observation |
| Last census | Hand-entered, cited to www.knbs.or.ke/category/2019-census/ |
| Last GDP rebase | Hand-entered, cited to www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Revisio… |
| Last labour-force survey | Hand-entered, cited to www.knbs.or.ke/quarterly-labour-force-reports/ |
| Median age | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Non-agricultural employment share | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Observed GDP growth | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2024 observation |
| Official development assistance | World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows, 2023 observation |
| Output per worker growth | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Owed to China | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025, 2024 observation |
| Owed to multilaterals | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Owed to other bilaterals | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Owed to other private creditors | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Owed to Paris Club creditors | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025, 2024 observation |
| PAPSS member | PAPSS Payments Network Coverage sheet (June 2026) |
| Population, 2024 | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Population, 2050 | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Population, 2100 | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Productivity growth, between-sector | GGDC Economic Transformation Database, 2018 observation |
| Productivity growth, within-sector | GGDC Economic Transformation Database, 2018 observation |
| Remittances received | World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows, 2025 observation |
| Restructuring status | Hand-entered, cited to clubdeparis.org/en/sites/clubdeparis/accueil/pays… |
| Statistical Performance Indicators score | World Bank Statistical Performance Indicators |
| Top three exports | UNCTADstat merchandise trade matrix, 2025 observation |
| Total fertility rate | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Urban share | World Bank World Development Indicators, 2025 observation |
| Wage employment share | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Wage employment source | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Working-age population growth (15-64) | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Youth not in employment, education or training | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2021 observation |
Card schema african-economic-future/country_card/v1, built 2026-10-25. The release behind each key, and the day each was last pulled, are listed on the About the data page, and the record behind this page is one of the fifty-four in cards.csv and cards.json.
All 54 cards · Compare this card with two others · About the data