Nigeria
2006 census contested; next census repeatedly postponed
VintagesWEO April 2026WDI pulled 25 October 2026IDS 2025 (December 2025 release)WPP 2024, medium variantLast refreshed 25 October 2026About the data
The identity
GDP growth is output-per-worker growth plus growth in the employment-to-working-age ratio plus working-age population growth. All three are annual growth rates, so the bar adds.
- Output per worker-1.94%
- Employment-to-working-age ratio+0.29%
- Working-age population (15-64)+2.90%
- Observed GDP growth+1.20%
- Implied (the three terms summed)+1.25%
| Overlay (beside the bar, never inside it) | Value |
|---|---|
| Wage employment share | 13.6% |
| Non-agricultural employment share | 65.9% |
| Employment rate, women | 77.4% |
| Employment rate, men | 82.6% |
| Youth not in employment, education or training | 11.9% |
| Productivity growth, within-sector | -1.19% |
| Productivity growth, between-sector | +1.48% |
| Wage employment source | ILO-modelled-employees |
Generative-AI exposure: 0.7 percent of employment in the most exposed occupations (gradient 4 of the ILO's 2025 index). This is the book's estimate, not an ILO figure: the index's occupation gradients weighted by labour-force survey employment in two-digit occupation groups, 2019. Beside the bar, never inside it: it is a share, not a growth rate.
Population path
- Population, 2024232.7 million
- Population, 2050359.2 million
- Population, 2100476.7 million
- Median age17.9 years
- Total fertility rate4.38 births per woman
- Dependency ratio78.8 per 100 of working age
Output
Levels are the IMF’s April 2026 estimates for 2025, with the World Bank’s most recent published year standing in where the IMF publishes no figure for this country. Observed growth is over the same window as the identity above, and the forecast runs five years out.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| GDP | $290.5bn |
| GDP per capita | $1,223 |
| GDP at PPP | $2,264.8bn |
| Observed GDP growth | +1.20% |
| GDP growth, five-year forecast | +4.19% |
| Urban share | 63.8% |
| Informal employment share | 93.1% |
| Largest city | Lagos |
| Largest city population | 16.1 million |
| Largest city population, 2050 | 36.9 million |
External debt
- Multilateral$23.8bn
- Other bilateral$6.1bn
- Other private$20.3bn
- Eurobonds, of which bonds, inside other private$18.0bn
- Paris Club, of which owed to Paris Club members, across all three$0.8bn
- China, of which owed to China, across all three$5.3bn
- Total external debt stock$108.8bn
- IDS 2025, owed to China$5.3bn
- BU CLA, cumulative commitments$8.9bn
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Debt service due 2026-2030 | $29.3bn |
| Eurobonds outstanding | not yet fetched |
| Restructuring status | none |
| Collateralized or resource-backed debt | not yet fetched |
| S&P rating | not yet fetched |
| Moody's rating | not yet fetched |
| Fitch rating | not yet fetched |
Exports and the balance sheet
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Top three exports | Petroleum oils, oils from bitumin. materials, crude (SITC 333): 63.0%; Natural gas, whether or not liquefied (SITC 343): 9.1%; Cocoa (SITC 072): 5.1% |
| Commodity dependence | 95.2% |
| Remittances received | $22.8bn |
| Foreign direct investment | $4.0bn |
| Official development assistance | $3.6bn |
| AfCFTA status | ratified |
| PAPSS member | yes |
| Afrobarometer lived poverty index | 1.91 |
Data quality
Last census 2006. Last GDP rebase 2025. Last labour-force survey 2023. SPI 69.1. Reports to the IMF under e-GDDS. Confidence: low.The rule: high means a census within fifteen years, an SPI score of 70 or better and a labour-force survey within five years; one failure is medium, two or more failures or a census before 2000 is low, and the flag is left uncomputed when one of the three inputs is itself missing (the rule, and the reasons to argue with it, on the About the data page).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| WPP estimate basis | not recorded |
| Climate vulnerability | low |
| Fragility | FCS: conflict |
Census: enumerated 21-27 March 2006; it remains the most recent Nigerian census, later rounds having been postponed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Nigerian_census). Rebase: NBS rebased in mid-2025, moving the base year from 2010 to 2019 and raising 2024 nominal GDP 34.4 per cent; the previous rebasing was 2014. LFS: NBS Nigeria Labour Force Survey annual report 2023 on the revised methodology.
The shelf
The latest reports on this country from the Fund and the Bank. Each line under “what it argued” is the publisher's own summary, quoted, not a paraphrase; where a summary says nothing the line is blank. A country with no Article IV consultation in the last three years says so, with the report that establishes it.
| Report | What it argued |
|---|---|
| IMF Article IV2026 Article IV ConsultationCh. 10Ch. 21Ch. 37 | “The 2026 Article IV Consultation discusses that strong reforms over the past three years have yielded improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience in Nigeria.”IMF, abstract of Country Report No. 2026/125 |
| IMF Selected IssuesSelected IssuesCh. 21 | “This Selected Issues paper presents a descriptive analysis of recent developments in Nigeria. Recent reforms have reduced inflation persistence in Nigeria, making inflation more responsive to monetary policy actions.”IMF, abstract of Country Report No. 2026/126 |
| World Bank country updateNigeria Development Update : Beyond the Federal Purse - How Higher Revenues Shaped State PrioritiesCh. 10Ch. 21Ch. 37 | “Nigeria’s macroeconomic stabilization has progressed further into 2026. Higher oil prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East have improved the current account balance and fiscal revenues but have also interrupted the disinflation trend observed since late 2024.”World Bank, abstract of report no. 215621 in Documents & Reports |
Sources
Numbers on this card were last refreshed on 25 October 2026.
| Release behind this card | Last pulled |
|---|---|
| African Union AfCFTA signature and ratification register | 25 October 2026 |
| Africapolis 2025 | 25 October 2026 |
| Afrobarometer Round 9 lived-poverty index | 25 October 2026 |
| Boston University Chinese Loans to Africa database, 2000-2024 | 25 October 2026 |
| GGDC Economic Transformation Database | 25 October 2026 |
| ILO modelled estimates, November 2025 | 25 October 2026 |
| IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026 | 13 September 2026 |
| ND-GAIN Country Index, 2026 release | 25 October 2026 |
| PAPSS Payments Network Coverage sheet | 25 October 2026 |
| UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant | Not recorded |
| UNCTADstat merchandise trade matrix | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank Group FY26 list of fragile and conflict-affected situations | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank Statistical Performance Indicators | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank World Development Indicators | 25 October 2026 |
| World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows | 25 October 2026 |
| hand-entered | Not pulled |
| derived here from the three identity terms | Not pulled |
| Field on this page | Where the number comes from |
|---|---|
| AfCFTA status | African Union AfCFTA signature and ratification register (22/05/2026) |
| Afrobarometer lived poverty index | Afrobarometer Round 9 lived-poverty index, 2022 observation |
| Chinese loan commitments, cumulative | Boston University Chinese Loans to Africa database, 2000-2024 |
| Climate vulnerability | ND-GAIN Country Index, 2026 release, 2024 observation |
| Commodity dependence | UNCTADstat merchandise trade matrix, 2025 observation |
| Debt service due 2026-2030 | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 (2026-2030) |
| Dependency ratio | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Employment rate, men | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Employment rate, women | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Employment-to-working-age growth | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Eurobonds held by creditors | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| External debt stock | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Foreign direct investment | World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows, 2025 observation |
| Fragility | World Bank Group FY26 list of fragile and conflict-affected situations |
| GDP | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2025 observation |
| GDP at PPP | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2025 observation |
| GDP growth, five-year forecast | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2030 observation |
| GDP per capita | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2025 observation |
| Identity window | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| IMF dissemination standard | Hand-entered, cited to www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr1675 |
| Implied GDP growth | derived here from the three identity terms |
| Informal employment share | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Largest city | Africapolis 2025, 2025 observation |
| Largest city population | Africapolis 2025, 2025 observation |
| Largest city population, 2050 | Africapolis 2025, 2050 observation |
| Last census | Hand-entered, cited to catalog.ihsn.org/index.php/catalog/3340 |
| Last GDP rebase | Hand-entered, cited to africacheck.org/fact-checks/factsheets/factsheet-… |
| Last labour-force survey | Hand-entered, cited to www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/pdfuploads/Annual_Nigeria… |
| Median age | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Non-agricultural employment share | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Observed GDP growth | IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, 2024 observation |
| Official development assistance | World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows, 2023 observation |
| Output per worker growth | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Owed to China | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025, 2024 observation |
| Owed to multilaterals | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Owed to other bilaterals | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Owed to other private creditors | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025 |
| Owed to Paris Club creditors | World Bank International Debt Statistics 2025, 2024 observation |
| PAPSS member | PAPSS Payments Network Coverage sheet (June 2026) |
| Population, 2024 | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Population, 2050 | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Population, 2100 | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Productivity growth, between-sector | GGDC Economic Transformation Database, 2018 observation |
| Productivity growth, within-sector | GGDC Economic Transformation Database, 2018 observation |
| Remittances received | World Bank World Development Indicators, cross-border flows, 2025 observation |
| Restructuring status | Hand-entered, cited to clubdeparis.org/en/sites/clubdeparis/accueil/pays… |
| Statistical Performance Indicators score | World Bank Statistical Performance Indicators |
| Top three exports | UNCTADstat merchandise trade matrix, 2025 observation |
| Total fertility rate | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Urban share | World Bank World Development Indicators, 2025 observation |
| Wage employment share | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Wage employment source | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
| Working-age population growth (15-64) | UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant |
| Youth not in employment, education or training | ILO modelled estimates, November 2025, 2024 observation |
Card schema african-economic-future/country_card/v1, built 2026-10-25. The release behind each key, and the day each was last pulled, are listed on the About the data page, and the record behind this page is one of the fifty-four in cards.csv and cards.json.
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