Review of D. J. van Vuuren, J. Latakgomo, H. C. Marais and L. Schlemmer (eds.), South African Election 1987¶
Adrian Guelke (1988). Review of D. J. van Vuuren, J. Latakgomo, H. C. Marais and L. Schlemmer (eds.), South African Election 1987. Journal of Southern African Studies, Vol. 15, No. 1. Taylor & Francis.
| Type | other |
| Scope | Wider apartheid literature |
| Method | synthesis review |
| Period studied | 1981–1987 |
| Regions | South Africa |
| Themes | politics ideology elections |
| Citation key | guelke1988 |
Argument¶
Guelke reviews a large edited volume on the 6 May 1987 white general election. He argues that the book is thin in content and weak in analysis. Many contributors, Schlemmer among them, present the result as a triumph for the white 'centre' and so not a setback for reform. Guelke finds this unpersuasive given the NP's security-heavy campaign and its control of the mass media. He holds that the Conservative Party's success and the consolidation of the far right were significant. He also says the chapters on black perceptions of the election are the best in the book and agree with the outside world's view that the result was a severe blow to peaceful change.
Evidence and method¶
The review draws on the reviewer's reading of the edited volume: its chapters on mathematical models (D. Laurie, with by-election statistics), Schlemmer's interpretation, Kane-Berman's comments, and the chapters on black perceptions. It adds the reviewer's own knowledge of the 1981-87 political context. It cites no new data.
Place in the debates¶
- Meaning of the 1987 white election: far-right breakthrough versus triumph for the white centre and reform (see White electoral politics, delimitation and party systems). Guelke rejects the Schlemmer-style reading of the result as a triumph for the centre and no setback to reform. He treats the Conservative Party's success and the far right's consolidation as a significant blow to the prospects for peaceful change.
- Quality of South African psephology and electoral analysis (see White electoral politics, delimitation and party systems). He judges the state of psephology to be 'relatively primitive'. He criticises the book for asserting opinion without statistical analysis, and for ignoring abstention by white radicals.
Findings¶
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By-election results had already foreshadowed the far-right gain and the PFP decline. (p. 2)
What emerges clearly from Laurie's chapter is that the success of the far right and the decline in support for the PFP in May 1987 had been foreshadowed in the outcome of by-elections.
-
Guelke dates the far right's rise to the 1982 formation of the Conservative Party and the PFP's decline to the 1983 constitutional referendum. (p. 2)
the formation of the Conservative Party in 1982 was a watershed in the fortunes of the far right, while the decline of the PFP can be dated from the 1983 referendum on the new constitution.
-
Schlemmer reads the election as a victory for the NP-led white centre, which implies no setback to reform. (p. 2)
This evidence is referred to by Lawrence Schlemmer to justify a view of the 1987 election as a triumph for the white 'centre', as represented by the National Party
-
Guelke finds the 'centre triumph' reading unpersuasive given the campaign context and media control. (p. 2)
the nature of the National Party's campaign with its heavy emphasis on security, and the Government's domination of the mass media, this is unpersuasive, to say the least.
-
The far right took about 30 per cent of the vote, confirming established trends. (p. 2)
the 30 per cent of the vote garnered by the far right provided confirmation for trends already established, though all too rarely recognised
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The Conservative Party's near-elimination of the HNP made the far right a cohesive force. (p. 2)
the establishment of the far right as a cohesive force as a result of the virtual elimination of the HNP by the
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The book's analytical quality is weak, with opinion taking precedence over analysis. (p. 3)
in much of the book, aggressively asserted opinion takes precedence over analysis.
-
The volume does not examine abstention by white radicals. (p. 3)
there is no serious attempt in the volume to examine the extent of abstentions by white radicals and whether abstentionism had a bearing on the outcome in any seats.
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The contributors hold a paradoxical view of the election's significance. (p. 3)
The reader is left with the puzzling impression of a wide consensus among the contributors that the election was crucial, but that the result did not matter
-
The chapters on black perceptions are the strongest academically. (p. 3)
They are also, coincidentally or not, some of the best chapters in the book in academic terms.
Evidence ledger¶
Sources used¶
| Source | Kind | Period | How used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Results of the 6 May 1987 South African (white) House of Assembly election, as presented in the reviewed volume | election returns | 1987 | Supplies the headline far-right vote share (about 30 per cent) and the Conservative Party's success, which the reviewer uses to assess the contributors' interpretation of the result. |
| By-election results since the 1981 House of Assembly election, as analysed in D. Laurie's chapter on mathematical models | election returns | 1981-1987 | Laurie's statistics on by-elections are used to show that the far-right surge and the PFP decline were foreshadowed before May 1987. |
| Text of the proclamation of the 1987 election and 1981 provincial election results, including candidates' addresses, reproduced in the volume | legislation gazette | 1981 and 1987 | Cited by the reviewer as an example of material included in the book that is of little relevance, not as evidence for any argument. |
| 1983 referendum on the new constitution (results as implied in the volume's discussion) | election returns | 1983 | Used to date the beginning of the PFP's decline, though no figures are given. |
| Chapters on black perceptions of the 1987 election in the volume (underlying data not described) | other | 1987 | The reviewer uses these chapters as a contrasting perspective and as the best academic contributions, without describing their data. |
Inference¶
Quantification: Illustrative figures.
This is a critical book review. The reviewer assesses the edited volume's content and interpretations against his own knowledge of the election and its political context. He relies on the volume's election and by-election statistics (mainly Laurie's chapter) and on qualitative judgement of the contributors' arguments. No independent data are analysed.
Key claims¶
| Claim | Basis | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| By-election outcomes since 1981 foreshadowed the far-right success and the PFP decline in 1987. (p. 2) | By-election statistics presented in Laurie's chapter on mathematical models, as summarised by the reviewer. | Partial data |
| Despite its size, the volume lacks the statistical analysis and by-election listings its own arguments require. (p. 2) | The reviewer's reading of the volume's contents. | Illustrative or anecdotal |
| Schlemmer's reading of the election as a triumph for the white centre, and not a setback for reform, is unpersuasive. (p. 2) | The reviewer's argument from the election context, the National Party's security-focused campaign and government control of the media; no data are cited. | Asserted |
| The Conservative Party's virtual elimination of the HNP made the far right a cohesive force, one of the election's most significant outcomes. (p. 2) | The reviewer's assertion based on the election outcome; no figures are given. | Asserted |
| The volume does not examine whether abstentions by white radicals affected the outcome in any seats, and its analysis is weak. (p. 3) | The reviewer's judgement of the volume's omissions; no data are used. | Asserted |
| The chapters on black perceptions are among the best in the book and show the outcome as a severe blow to prospects for peaceful change. (p. 3) | The reviewer's comparison of these chapters with the rest of the volume; the underlying data are not described. | Asserted |
The author's caveats¶
The reviewer notes the absence of a detailed statistical analysis of the results, of a listing of by-election results since 1981, and of any examination of abstentions. He calls psephology in South Africa still 'relatively primitive'.
Gaps in the evidence¶
The review makes claims about voting trends and the far-right swing without presenting constituency-level results or time series. A systematic analysis of House of Assembly constituency returns for 1981 and 1987, the by-elections, and the 1983 referendum, together with turnout and abstention estimates, would test the 'centre triumph' and trend claims. Opinion-survey data on white voters and on black perceptions would also help. The official returns existed at the time and are now available in archives and published election compilations.
Replicability: Not applicable.