South Africa: The Long Transition of a Terminal Patient¶

Literature › Works

Ineke van Kessel (1989). South Africa: The Long Transition of a Terminal Patient. Canadian Journal of African Studies / Revue canadienne des études africaines (CJAS/RCEA) 23(2).


Type	journal article
Scope	Wider apartheid literature
Method	synthesis review
Period studied	1948–1988
Regions	South Africa, Southern Africa
Themes	politics ideology elections, transition post apartheid, business and state, sanctions divestment, resistance social movements, unions strikes
Citation key	`kessel1989`

Argument¶

This review essay assesses three 1987-88 books on South Africa's 'transition' (Lemon, Kitchen ed., Blumenfeld ed.), each produced in the wake of the 1984-86 uprising. Van Kessel argues that they break little new ground and follow a formulaic pattern: a short history, an assessment of whether reform dismantles or modernises apartheid, a comparison of the opposing forces, and scenarios for the future. She criticises their top-down, white-centred, reformist-liberal perspective, which treats Black South Africans as objects of policy rather than actors. She also faults the books for being hastily assembled, for including dated essays, and for factual errors about unions and anti-apartheid organisations. Lemon's volume is judged the most durable as a reference survey, and Blumenfeld's is preferred over Kitchen's because its papers were updated.

Evidence and method¶

Close reading of three edited or authored volumes (Lemon, Apartheid in Transition, 1987; Kitchen ed., South Africa: In Transition to What?, 1988; Blumenfeld ed., South Africa in Crisis, 1987). The reviewer cross-checks their claims against her own knowledge of events and organisations such as the UDF, COSATU and the National Forum.

Place in the debates¶

Reform as dismantling versus modernisation of apartheid (see Why apartheid ended: reform, transition and elite bargaining). The reviewer reports that the books address the question (Lipton's chapter, Foltz on technocratic modernisation, Rotberg on 'survival through modernisation'). She treats Botha-era reform as modernisation aimed at survival rather than dismantling.
Internal versus external determinants of change in South Africa (see Why apartheid ended: reform, transition and elite bargaining). Notes that Lemon and most Kitchen contributors stress internal factors and white agency, while Blumenfeld's contributors stress external pressures (sanctions, regional and military). She is critical of the top-down internalist view that neglects Black society's dynamics.
Reform and repression under the state of emergency (see Why apartheid ended: reform, transition and elite bargaining). Endorses Baynham's point that in Pretoria's view reform must parallel or follow repression. She argues that detentions removed the UDF's local leadership and so fuelled unrestrained township violence.

Findings¶

The reviewer's overall verdict is that the three books add little new. (p. 1)

The three books under review do not break much new ground, which is not to say that they do not contain useful information.
The main criticism of Lemon is that Black South Africans are treated as passive objects, which she calls his top-down approach. (p. 1)

Indeed, Black South Africans appear on almost every page, but mostly as objects of policy, not as subjects of history.
Foltz is credited with identifying lasting trends in state strategy, including the aim of a stable urban African workforce led by a collaborating middle class. (p. 2)

the governments' objective to create a stable, basically urban African work f orce led by a collaborating middle class
Rotberg's chapter shows a shift in decision-making power under P. W. Botha towards military-trained technocrats. (p. 2)

P. W. Botha's policies are characterised as a rationalised pragmatism, accompanied by an important shift in the locus of decision-making power from old-line bureaucrats to a cadre largely composed of military trained technocrats.
Baynham argues that the security establishment sequences reform after repression. (p. 2)

pointing out that in the view of Pretoria's power elite reform must parallel or follow repression; it cannot be permitted to precede it.
The state of emergency detentions removed local UDF leaders who could have channelled township anger into organised, mostly non-violent resistance. (p. 2)

Detentions hit the localUDF leadership, the very people who were in a position to channel the outbursts of rage into some kind of organised, mostly non-violent resistance.
Meredith is cited as seeing the UDF as a standard-bearer of resistance with structural weaknesses. (p. 2)

its loose structure meant that the UDF lacked both cohesion and discipline.
The reviewer corrects a factual error in Lemon on post-Wiehahn union non-racialism. (p. 2)

But all reference to "race" was deleted in the Labour Relations Amendment Act (1981). In fact, all unions affiliated to COSATU are non-racial.
The reviewer finds the volumes politically narrow, with a reformist-liberal outlook and almost no Black South African voices. (p. 3)

These three books by and large share a reformist liberal perspective and a detached tone.

Evidence ledger¶

Inference¶

Quantification: None.

This is a review essay of three edited or authored books on South Africa in the 1980s. The reviewer's claims rest on reading the books, comparing their chapters with one another, and drawing on her own background knowledge of events. No primary sources or datasets are used. The Labour Relations Amendment Act (1981) is mentioned only to correct a factual error, not as evidence for a larger argument.

Key claims¶

Claim	Basis	Strength
The three books do not break new ground, though Lemon's volume is the most durable and gives a useful synthesis of population, urbanisation, agriculture, mining and industrialisation. (p. 1)	The reviewer's reading of the three books. No external data is cited.	Asserted
Lemon's book treats Black South Africans as objects of policy rather than as historical subjects, giving little attention to Black politics. (p. 2)	Content assessment of Lemon's chapter structure and his stated belief that change will come from whites.	Illustrative or anecdotal
Lemon wrongly implies that racially mixed unions are still prohibited after the Wiehahn reforms, because all reference to race was deleted by the 1981 amendment. (p. 2)	Reference to the Labour Relations Amendment Act (1981) and the non-racial status of COSATU affiliates, asserted without citation.	Asserted
The Kitchen volume is uneven because its essays were written between 1982 and 1987 and not updated, so some, such as those on Black politics and regional politics, are outdated. (p. 1)	The publication history of the essays and the reviewer's knowledge of later events such as the Nkomati Accord.	Illustrative or anecdotal
Mass detentions of UDF leaders under the state of emergency removed the leaders who could channel township anger into organised, mostly non-violent resistance, and so contributed to the violence. (p. 3)	The reviewer's inference, drawing on Meredith's chapter and her own reasoning. No data is cited.	Asserted
The three books share a reformist liberal perspective and a detached tone, and include only one Black South African contributor. (p. 3)	Survey of the contributors and approach of the three books.	Illustrative or anecdotal

Gaps in the evidence¶

As a review essay, it offers no systematic evidence for its judgments about the books' quality or about the 1984-86 events. Claims about the effect of detentions on township violence would need police and emergency detention records, township-level violence data, and UDF organisational records. Such sources existed in part then and are more accessible now, through the TRC records and the archives of the state of emergency.

Replicability: Not applicable.