Have Migration Patterns in post-Apartheid South Africa Changed?¶
Dorrit Posel (2003). Have Migration Patterns in post-Apartheid South Africa Changed?. Conference on African Migration in Comparative Perspective, Johannesburg, 4-7 June 2003. University of Natal.
| Type | conference paper |
| Scope | Post-1994 South African economy |
| Method | mixed |
| Period studied | 1993–1999 |
| Regions | South Africa, rural African households, Southern Africa (cross-border migration) |
| Themes | mining migrant labour, labour markets wages, demography urbanisation, transition post apartheid, methods data sources, bantustans removals influx, inequality poverty unemployment |
| Citation key | posel2003a |
Argument¶
Posel argues that the assumption that circular labour migration would end with apartheid is unsupported by national data. Using four household surveys (1993 PSLSD; 1995, 1997, 1999 OHS), she shows that temporary labour migration from rural African households rose between 1993 and 1999, driven partly by growth in female migration. Migrants also kept economic ties with their households of origin, with more households receiving remittances. She suggests that insecure labour markets and rising unemployment sustain the rural base and the pattern of individuals rather than families migrating. She also argues that research and survey design shifted away from labour migration in the 1990s, making it statistically invisible.
Evidence and method¶
Four national household surveys (1993 PSLSD, 1995, 1997 and 1999 OHS), plus the 1996 and 2001 Censuses (for questionnaire coverage). Descriptive tables on households with migrants, gender of migrants, remittances, marital rates and rural households without employed men. A 1993 probit regression of rural African female migration (N=6041). Secondary literature on the migrant labour system, household models and cross-border case studies.
Findings¶
- Households with labour migrants grew in number among rural African households, 1993-1999. (p. 8)
- The share of rural African households with migrants rose. (p. 8)
- The gender composition of labour migrants shifted toward women. (p. 8)
- Remittance receipt among rural migrant households rose. (p. 9)
- Nominal remittances grew by about 40 percent between 1993 and 1997. (p. 9)
- National surveys progressively stopped capturing labour migration, removing it from view. (p. 7)
- Married women and women in households with employed resident men were less likely to migrate in 1993. (p. 13)
- Female unemployment was high and rising in the late 1990s, so migration was not driven by favourable labour demand. (p. 15)
- Older migrants remit more, consistent with retirement motives. (p. 16)