Issues and Campaigns in the South African General Election of 1981

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Anthony Lemon (1982). Issues and Campaigns in the South African General Election of 1981. African Affairs. Oxford University Press (Royal African Society).

Type	journal article
Scope	Wider apartheid literature
Method	archival narrative
Period studied	1977–1981
Regions	South Africa, Natal, Cape Province, Transvaal, Orange Free State
Themes	politics ideology elections, bantustans removals influx, unions strikes, business and state, labour markets wages
Citation key	lemon1982

Argument

Lemon argues that the 1981 white general election matters for its campaign and issues, not for the seat tally. The National Party kept a large majority but lost a great many votes, mostly to the far-right HNP, whose share rose almost five-fold. He reads the campaign party by party: the NP's 'total onslaught' theme and its attempt to hold a 'middle ground' while facing opponents on both flanks, the HNP's attack on labour reform, 'petty' apartheid reform and wealth transfers to blacks, and the PFP's focus on negotiation, the failure of apartheid and its rising costs. His conclusion is that white discontent over costs, inflation and reform is likely to persist, and that economic demand for skilled black labour will make further reform hard to resist. NP unity cannot be taken for granted.

Evidence and method

Contemporary South African press (Daily Dispatch, Rand Daily Mail, Die Vaderland, Hoofstad and others), the 1981 NP Manifesto, party speeches and literature, by-election and election results, Government commission reports (Wiehahn, Riekert, Van der Walt), and secondary literature such as Savage on the costs of apartheid. Lemon also had access to some PFP polling information and to interviews or help from several politicians.

Place in the debates

• Reform vs reaction: white electoral response to Botha's reformism (see White electoral politics, delimitation and party systems). Lemon treats the HNP surge as evidence of a real white backlash against labour and 'petty' apartheid reforms, but credits Botha with holding most of the NP together by facing both ways. He sees the electorate as divided rather than as a monolithic Afrikaner bloc.
• Liberal view of apartheid as economically costly and in tension with growth (see Liberal vs revisionist: was apartheid functional or dysfunctional for capitalist growth?). Lemon relays the PFP and opposition claim that apartheid's costs (defence, influx control) were eroding white living standards, and notes that a dynamic economy demands skilled black labour. He treats this as a political argument rather than testing it.

Findings

• Despite a large seat majority, the NP lost votes heavily, which signalled cracks in Afrikaner unity. (p. 1)

  the first loss of seats since 1970 was compounded by a far greater loss of votes, which raised the spectre of cracks in the monolith of Afrikaner unity

• The HNP's vote share rose almost five-fold, making it a respectable option for roughly one voter in seven. The OCR garbles the percentages. (p. 14)

  an almost five-fold increase in the HNP share of the poll (from 3 • 2 per cent to 14-1 per cent) is the most dramatic change.

• The Government's delay in implementing labour reforms (Wiehahn, Riekert) reflected fear of right-wing backlash, especially from the white mineworkers' union. (p. 6)

  suggested fear of a right-wing backlash

• HNP by-election strength in 1979 came from mining and railway constituencies and was a protest against liberalized labour legislation. (p. 8)

  Such results were achieved in 'blue-collar' constituencies (Koedoespoort, Rustenburg and Germiston), characterized by large numbers of mining and/or railway workers, and represented a protest against proposed liberalization of labour legislation.

• The Manpower Minister argued that whites' shrinking share of the population meant they could not perform all essential services. (p. 6)

  they would decline from 16 per cent of the total population to only 8 per cent by the year 2020

• The HNP accused the Government of using inflation as an instrument of redistribution from whites to blacks. (p. 9)

  The Government was accused of deliberately encouraging inflation to redistribute income from whites to blacks

• The NP manifesto introduced an economic-viability test for homeland land consolidation, implying even slower consolidation. (p. 7)

  it was stated for the first time that consolidation should be carried out 'on the basis that land should be utilized economically and productively'

• The PFP argued that rural poverty in the homelands could only be solved through urbanization of the black population. (p. 11)

  the only solution to mass rural poverty was to settle people in urban areas

• Record inflation and lagging white incomes fed the discontent that opposition parties exploited, even during rapid growth. (p. 12)

  By April 1981 inflation was running at a record 15 -8 per cent per annum, and white incomes had in many cases lagged behind, despite an eight per cent growth in South Africa's GNP during 1980.

• The cost of defending apartheid was publicised as R2,400 million for 1981. (p. 12)

  The costs of defending a system unacceptable to the rest of the world amounted to R 2,400 million for 1981.

• Lemon expects economic pressure for skilled black labour to drive further reform even as white resistance hardens. (p. 14)

  further reforms will be difficult to resist given a dynamic economy which demands rapid increases in the supply of skilled black labour

Evidence ledger

Sources used

Source	Kind	Period	How used
Daily Dispatch (East London), 1981 issues	newspapers periodicals	January-April 1981	Reports of nomination contests, ministerial and party leaders' speeches, and campaign statements that support the account of each party's campaign.
Eastern Province Herald (Port Elizabeth), 1981	newspapers periodicals	April 1981	Quotes HNP leader Marais on NP organizational strain and Slabbert's Grahamstown statement.
Rand Daily Mail (Johannesburg), 1974, 1977 and 1981	newspapers periodicals	1974-1981	Source for past (1974, 1977) NP campaign slogans and for Slabbert's remarks on black preferences for negotiation.
Afrikaans press: Hoofstad, Die Vaderland, Die Volksblad, Die Afrikaner	newspapers periodicals	March-April 1981	Illustrates Nationalist and HNP rhetoric of 'total onslaught', moderation, and HNP attacks on government policy.
Other press: Cape Times, Sunday Times, Evening Post, The Citizen, Natal Witness, Natal NP News, Nat 80's	newspapers periodicals	1981	Documents NRP, PFP and NP campaign statements and press reception of party leaders.
Manifesto of the National Party (1981)	other	1981	Primary text for the NP's campaign platform and its areas of vagueness on constitutional, labour and homeland policy.
Report of the Fourteenth Delimitation Commission, Government Gazette 184, no. 7246	commission or official report	1980	Cited as a reason for the early election and for the new constituency boundaries.
Wiehahn Commission reports on labour legislation (via SAIRR Survey of Race Relations 1979, 1980)	commission or official report	1977-1980	Used to show government reluctance to table or act on labour reform recommendations before the election.
Riekert Commission on Manpower Utilization and 1980 influx control regulations (via Survey of Race Relations 1980)	commission or official report	1979-1980	Shows government acceptance of Riekert's mobility recommendations while failing to approve multiracial trade areas.
Industrial Conciliation Amendment Act no. 94 of 1979	legislation gazette	1979	Cited to show restrictions placed on black union membership despite the Wiehahn recommendations.
Van der Walt Commission on homeland consolidation (findings reported via Koornhof/Daily Dispatch; final report unpublished)	commission or official report	1980-1981	Used for evidence that transferred homeland land had deteriorated and that consolidation was unachievable.
Michael Savage, 'Costs of Enforcing Apartheid and Problems of Change', African Affairs 76 (1977)	secondary literature compilation	1977	Source for the estimated cost of influx control (at least R112 million per annum).
PFP commissioned poll, late 1980	author survey or fieldwork	late 1980	Cited as showing white discontent with government economic performance, shaping PFP's 'bread and butter' campaign.
Schlemmer, 'White Voters and Change in South Africa', Optima 27 (1978)	secondary literature compilation	1977	Source for estimate that 30 per cent of English-speakers supported the NP in 1977.
1981 general election results (seats, vote shares, candidates, averages)	election returns	1977, 1981 (and 1979 by-elections)	Seat totals, HNP vote share (3.2% to 14.1%), candidate numbers and NRP average votes underpin the assessment of party performance.
Government research organization findings on homelands	commission or official report	c. 1980-81	Cited in the PFP campaign as showing homeland consolidation and viability to be impracticable and urban blacks to have few homeland ties.

Inference

Quantification: Illustrative figures.

Narrative analysis of the 1981 campaign, built from press reports, party manifestos and speeches, with comparison to the 1970-1977 elections and a few electoral and economic figures; no systematic statistical analysis.

Key claims

Claim	Basis	Strength
The NP's seat-based victory masked a major loss of votes and a dramatic rise in HNP support, signalling cracks in Afrikaner unity. (p. 14)	Election returns cited as seat and vote-share comparisons with 1977; no precise returns source given.	Partial data
The NP campaign was weakened by internal dissension, contested nominations and weak party organization before and during the election. (p. 2)	Daily Dispatch and other press reports of nomination contests and resignations.	Illustrative or anecdotal
HNP strength rested on blue-collar (mining/railway) and farm voters opposed to labour liberalization and homeland consolidation, as shown in the 1979 by-elections. (p. 8)	1979 by-election results (Koedoespoort, Rustenburg, Germiston) described without detailed data.	Partial data
The NP's labour and homeland policy was vague and delayed because of fear of a right-wing backlash. (p. 6)	Manifesto text, Wiehahn and Riekert Commission outcomes via SAIRR Survey, Van der Walt Commission press reports; inference about motive is the author's.	Illustrative or anecdotal
The costs of apartheid, inflation and white income lag fuelled opposition attacks and white discontent. (p. 12)	Savage's 1977 estimate, 1981 inflation and GNP figures (sources not named), PFP poll.	Partial data
The PFP built organizational strength and won over former United Party voters, but remained confined to areas of traditional UP allegiance. (p. 16)	Candidate numbers and seat results from the election returns; author's judgement of constituencies won.	Partial data
The NRP was a diminished force, its candidates averaging 2,809 votes compared with 2,829 in 1977, with no net gain, and its future confined to Natal. (p. 15)	Election returns for NRP candidates in 1977 and 1981 (source unspecified).	Partial data

The author's caveats

Notes that the costs of residential segregation, separate amenities and resettlement have yet to be quantified, and that the Van der Walt report was unpublished. Otherwise no explicit caveats on sources.

Gaps in the evidence

The argument relies on press reports and campaign rhetoric without constituency-level returns tables, so claims about which voters shifted to the HNP are inferred, not demonstrated. Constituency-by-constituency 1977 and 1981 results, and the PFP's commissioned poll or other opinion surveys, would test the voter-shift claims. The official returns existed at the time and are now available; survey data were largely unpublished.

Replicability: Data poorly documented.