The origins and definitions of rural-urban linkages and the urbanisation process in South Africa¶
Charles Simkins (n.d.). The origins and definitions of rural-urban linkages and the urbanisation process in South Africa. Workshop paper, section A: Rural-urban linkages and urbanisation (pp. 6-8 of a larger volume).
| Type | conference paper |
| Scope | Economics and economic history of apartheid |
| Method | theoretical or conceptual |
| Period studied | 1913–2000 |
| Regions | South Africa, homelands, PWV, Cape Town, Durban, Bloemfontein/Botshabelo, Port Elizabeth |
| Themes | bantustans removals influx, agriculture land, demography urbanisation, mining migrant labour, inequality poverty unemployment, manufacturing industrial policy |
| Citation key | simkinsnd |
Argument¶
Simkins argues that the Land Acts continue to split rural South Africa into homeland and non-homeland areas, and that this split sharply affects population distribution, incomes and service provision. Homeland rural households now depend heavily on urban labour markets, via contract labour, rather than on farming. Rapid metropolitan growth need not shrink the rural population, since that would require historically unprecedented urbanisation rates. Future spatial patterns will depend on land tenure reform, access to urban residential land, economic growth and access to employment. The paper warns against pumping infrastructure into areas of low income, high out-migration and fiscal crisis, and it is a short conceptual piece rather than a systematic treatment.
Evidence and method¶
Census and demographic figures (black rural population shares 1950 and 1985), field work by Graaff on peri-urban and dense settlements, Urban Foundation demographic model projections for 1985-2000, and general observations on agricultural statistics and metropolitan growth rates 1980-85. Sources are not systematically cited.
Place in the debates¶
- Pass laws, influx control abolition and the future spatial distribution of the black population (see Influx control, pass laws and African urbanisation). Notes that abolition will open non-homeland metropolitan areas to black immigrants and that population growth there is already accelerating. Argues that rural populations may still grow, and thinks the Urban Foundation projections are probably too low on urbanisation.
- Land Acts and rural restructuring (retain, modify or abolish) (see Agricultural policy, productivity, farm size and land reform). Argues that the Land Acts still do work that urban segregation no longer does. Abolition would trigger re-occupation of land and might alter agricultural structure if small farming proved viable. If they are retained, homeland tenure would move along capitalist lines, speeding out-migration.
- Homeland and regional industrial development policy (see Homelands, separate development, decentralisation and removals). Critical of past homeland 'development' for providing infrastructure where incomes are low and out-migration high. Sceptical that decentralised-manufacturing incentives can be replaced easily, given vested interests.
Findings¶
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The black population outside the homelands on white-owned rural land fell sharply as a share of all black people between 1950 and 1985. (p. 1)
whereas 35 per cent of the black population lived in rural areas outside the homelands in 1950, only 13 per cent did so in 1985.
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The state attacked black freehold, labour tenancy and other tenancy forms outside the homelands. (p. 1)
There has been a systematic state assault on the remnants of black freehold tenure outside the homelands, on the labour tenant system and on other forms of tenancy
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Agricultural wages stagnated in the 1980s while farm-resident blacks remained uniquely educationally disadvantaged. (p. 1)
agricultural wages themselves have stagnated in real terms.
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Farming is a minor part of homeland household incomes, which depend on urban labour markets. (p. 1)
agricultural production now forms a small part - nearly always less than a quarter - of household incomes.
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Most 1980-85 metropolitan black in-migration to Durban and Bloemfontein/Botshabelo occurred in homeland parts of those areas. (p. 2)
For the metropolitan areas as a whole, 80 per cent of the net inmigration occurred in the homeland parts.
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Fast metropolitan growth is compatible with a rising rural population, and an absolute rural decline would need unprecedented urban growth. (p. 3)
the requirements for an absolute decline in the rural population are urban growth rates at a historically unprecedented rate.
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The contract labour system underpinned the dependence of homeland rural households on urban incomes and peaked in the 1970s. (p. 3)
The mechanism which has underpinned this phenomenon has been the contract labour system. This system reached its peak in the 1970s;
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Past homeland development spending built infrastructure in poor, high out-migration areas, and this should not be repeated. (p. 3)
Quite a lot of homeland "development" activity in the last quarter of century has made just these mistakes and the first task of new policies is to see that they are not repeated.
Evidence ledger¶
Sources used¶
| Source | Kind | Period | How used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population censuses (South Africa), as characterised for non-urban classification | population census | Not specified; used for 1950-1985 comparisons | Cited to show that censuses lump peri-urban, dense settlement and rural populations together as 'non-urban', so demographic classification needs fieldwork. |
| Graaff field work on homeland settlement types | author survey or fieldwork | Not specified | Named as the fieldwork needed to separate peri-urban, dense settlement and rural population inside the homelands. |
| Urban Foundation demographic model projections 1985-2000 | secondary literature compilation | 1985 base, projected to 2000 | Projections show the rural population may still rise slightly even at high metropolitan growth rates. |
| Statistical material on agricultural production by black households outside the homelands (series since discontinued) | official statistical series | Not specified; ceased to be collected | Used to claim own-account agricultural production was a shrinking share of black farm household income outside the homelands. |
| Land Acts (1913 and later amendments, scheduled and released land) | legislation gazette | 1913 onwards | Legal framework dividing rural South Africa into homeland and non-homeland parts, which structures the argument on tenure and population distribution. |
| Unnamed demographic estimates of black population distribution 1950, 1980-1985 (rural share, metropolitan growth rates) | official statistical series | 1950-1985 | Supplies figures on black population shares outside the homelands and on metropolitan growth rates and net inmigration. |
Inference¶
Quantification: Illustrative figures.
Conceptual and discursive argument backed by a few stylised demographic figures and one set of third-party model projections; there is no systematic data analysis, regression or formal comparison.
Key claims¶
| Claim | Basis | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| The Land Acts and post-1950s policy sharpened the divide between homeland and non-homeland rural areas; the black share living on non-homeland rural land fell from 35% in 1950 to 13% in 1985. (p. 1) | Unnamed demographic figures for 1950 and 1985; no source cited. | Partial data |
| Agriculture is now a small part, nearly always under a quarter, of household income in the homelands, which depend heavily on urban labour markets. (p. 1) | Asserted without a cited survey. | Asserted |
| Between 1980 and 1985 black metropolitan growth was concentrated in homeland parts of the metropolitan areas (80% of net inmigration), and growth in the non-homeland PWV and Port Elizabeth has accelerated. (p. 2) | Unreferenced estimates of metropolitan growth and migration; PWV and Port Elizabeth rates are the author's judgement ('probably'). | Partial data |
| Even with rapid urban growth the rural population may keep rising slightly; an absolute rural decline would require historically unprecedented urban growth rates. (p. 3) | Urban Foundation demographic model projections for 1985-2000 (rural 7,2 to 7,8 million homeland-plus-non-homeland), with the author's view that they are on the low side. | Partial data |
| The contract labour system underpinned rural homeland household dependence on urban incomes; it peaked in the 1970s and has probably declined since. (p. 3) | Asserted from general knowledge; no data cited and the decline is stated as likely. | Asserted |
| Providing infrastructure in low-income, high-outmigration homeland areas with little productive scope is wasteful, and much homeland 'development' made this mistake. (p. 3) | Normative and analytical argument; no cost or evaluation data. | Asserted |
The author's caveats¶
The author says the treatment is not systematic, that the censuses cannot separate peri-urban, dense and rural populations, that nobody knows how many homeland people have access to land, and that data capable of clear conclusions on the rural-urban income gap are hard to come by. He also says knowledge of the other factors is very insufficient.
Gaps in the evidence¶
The paper gives almost no cited sources for its figures, so the 1950 and 1985 shares, the metropolitan growth rates and the household income shares cannot be checked. Needed are census tables by homeland and magisterial district, the Agricultural Census series, household income surveys for homeland and farm households, and Chamber of Mines or labour bureau contract migrancy counts. Much of this existed in the 1980s, though some series were truncated or excluded homelands, and archival and census microdata now allow more systematic tests.
Replicability: Data poorly documented.