Identity scoreboard
GDP growth is the growth of output per worker, plus the growth of the employment-to-working-age ratio, plus the growth of the working-age population. Every growth column below is an annual rate in percent over the same window, which is what makes the identity add: Implied is the three terms summed, Observed is measured GDP growth, and Gap is the difference the decomposition has not accounted for. The overlay is a separate matter and sits outside the sum. Wage employment is the share of employment that is paid employment rather than own-account work, and the column beside it says what kind of measurement it rests on. Of the 54 countries, 34 have a labour-force survey within 5 years of 2026, and only those can carry a survey-based overlay; the other 20 are shown from the modelled series and flagged as modelled, here and wherever else in this book the overlay appears. That is a weaker claim than a continental series, and it is the claim the surveys support. A blank in the underlying record means not yet fetched, a series not yet on the card or one that does not exist for that country, and never zero; a number that could only be computed from such a blank reads not yet computable.
Rows are sorted by working-age population growth, fastest first. As the cards stand: term one (working-age population growth) is filled on 54 of 54, term two (employment-to-working-age ratio) on 53, term three (output per worker) on 53, observed growth on 53, and the wage-employment overlay on 53. Confidence flags: 11 high, 20 medium, 20 low, 3 not yet computable. The flag rule, and the reasons to argue with it, are on the About the data page.
| Country | Region | Poles | Y/E | E/L | L | Implied | Observed | Gap | Wage employment | Overlay source | Last LFS | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda | East | 26 | +0.22 | +0.33 | +4.17 | +4.71 | +4.93 | -0.22 | 19.3 | modelled | 2021 | medium |
| Chad | Central | 36 | -1.31 | -0.43 | +4.14 | +2.40 | +2.47 | -0.07 | 8.5 | modelled | 2018 | low |
| Niger | West | 36 | +0.84 | +0.81 | +4.01 | +5.65 | +5.73 | -0.07 | 10.3 | modelled | 2022 | high |
| Somalia | East | no pole chapter | +1.05 | -0.09 | +3.79 | +4.75 | +2.83 | +1.92 | 47.8 | modelled | 2019 | low |
| Malawi | Southern | no pole chapter | +0.25 | -1.03 | +3.75 | +2.98 | +2.91 | +0.07 | 38.7 | modelled | 2013 | low |
| Zambia | Southern | 30 | -0.93 | +0.59 | +3.70 | +3.36 | +3.32 | +0.04 | 27.9 | modelled | 2022 | medium |
| Tanzania | East | 26, 30 | +1.92 | +0.03 | +3.55 | +5.50 | +5.83 | -0.33 | 14.4 | modelled | 2024 | medium |
| Mali | West | 36 | +1.33 | -0.72 | +3.54 | +4.16 | +4.27 | -0.11 | 23.1 | modelled | 2024 | medium |
| Angola | Southern | 30 | -3.12 | +0.09 | +3.53 | +0.49 | +0.64 | -0.14 | 24.1 | modelled | 2024 | medium |
| Senegal | West | 24 | +0.27 | +1.50 | +3.51 | +5.27 | +5.29 | -0.02 | 35.3 | modelled | 2024 | high |
| Ethiopia | East | 29 | +5.91 | -1.58 | +3.46 | +7.79 | +7.92 | -0.13 | 15.4 | modelled | 2021 | low |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | Central | 30, 31 | +1.80 | -0.18 | +3.38 | +5.00 | +4.83 | +0.17 | 14.7 | modelled | 2012 | low |
| Mauritania | North | 36 | +1.21 | -0.52 | +3.37 | +4.05 | +4.07 | -0.02 | 42.3 | modelled | 2024 | medium |
| Burkina Faso | West | 36 | +2.47 | -1.12 | +3.31 | +4.66 | +4.68 | -0.02 | 17.2 | modelled | 2025 | high |
| Mozambique | Southern | 25 | +0.57 | -0.47 | +3.25 | +3.35 | +3.35 | -0.00 | 14.5 | modelled | 2022 | medium |
| Sudan | East | no pole chapter | -2.87 | -0.81 | +3.20 | -0.48 | -4.91 | +4.42 | 53.5 | modelled | 2011 | low |
| Cameroon | Central | no pole chapter | +1.31 | -0.99 | +3.19 | +3.52 | +3.53 | -0.01 | 30.4 | modelled | 2021 | low |
| Equatorial Guinea | Central | no pole chapter | -7.07 | +0.03 | +3.17 | -3.88 | -4.11 | +0.23 | 72.7 | modelled | 2015 | low |
| Benin | West | 24 | +1.89 | +0.45 | +3.10 | +5.44 | +5.53 | -0.09 | 19.8 | modelled | 2022 | high |
| Guinea | West | no pole chapter | +3.90 | -0.70 | +3.06 | +6.26 | +6.33 | -0.07 | 17.8 | modelled | 2019 | low |
| Sierra Leone | West | no pole chapter | +0.74 | -0.47 | +3.05 | +3.32 | +3.40 | -0.08 | 11.0 | modelled | 2018 | low |
| Madagascar | East | no pole chapter | -0.06 | -0.16 | +3.03 | +2.82 | +2.83 | -0.01 | 11.5 | modelled | 2012 | low |
| The Gambia | West | no pole chapter | +1.34 | +0.16 | +3.03 | +4.53 | +4.69 | -0.16 | 31.0 | modelled | 2018 | low |
| Guinea-Bissau | West | no pole chapter | +1.41 | +0.34 | +2.97 | +4.72 | +4.67 | +0.05 | 24.3 | modelled | 2022 | low |
| Kenya | East | 26 | +2.83 | -1.17 | +2.94 | +4.61 | +4.62 | -0.02 | 35.0 | modelled | 2024 | high |
| Burundi | Central | 31 | -1.87 | +0.06 | +2.94 | +1.12 | +1.13 | -0.01 | 15.1 | modelled | 2020 | low |
| Nigeria | West | 24 | -1.94 | +0.29 | +2.90 | +1.25 | +1.20 | +0.05 | 13.6 | modelled | 2023 | low |
| Côte d'Ivoire | West | 24 | +2.90 | +0.11 | +2.88 | +5.89 | +6.16 | -0.27 | 28.7 | modelled | 2019 | medium |
| Rwanda | East | 26, 31 | +3.26 | +0.65 | +2.83 | +6.74 | +6.72 | +0.02 | 59.1 | modelled | 2024 | high |
| Togo | West | 24 | +1.98 | +0.02 | +2.74 | +4.75 | +5.10 | -0.35 | 22.9 | modelled | 2022 | medium |
| Namibia | Southern | 25 | -1.05 | -0.37 | +2.64 | +1.21 | +1.18 | +0.03 | 63.2 | modelled | 2018 | low |
| Liberia | West | no pole chapter | -0.98 | -0.14 | +2.61 | +1.49 | +1.46 | +0.03 | 21.4 | modelled | 2017 | low |
| Republic of the Congo | Central | 31 | -4.00 | -0.01 | +2.60 | -1.41 | -1.52 | +0.11 | 23.1 | modelled | 2011 | low |
| Gabon | Central | no pole chapter | -0.78 | +0.20 | +2.55 | +1.97 | +1.96 | +0.01 | 67.5 | modelled | 2024 | medium |
| Ghana | West | 24 | +3.48 | -1.56 | +2.52 | +4.44 | +4.45 | -0.01 | 32.1 | modelled | 2025 | medium |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | Central | no pole chapter | -0.20 | +0.01 | +2.51 | +2.33 | +2.33 | +0.00 | 55.9 | modelled | 2017 | low |
| Comoros | East | no pole chapter | -1.80 | +2.25 | +2.46 | +2.90 | +2.44 | +0.46 | 42.0 | modelled | 2021 | medium |
| Djibouti | East | 29 | +3.33 | -0.20 | +2.28 | +5.41 | +5.46 | -0.05 | 48.7 | modelled | 2025 | medium |
| Seychelles | East | no pole chapter | not yet fetched | not yet fetched | +2.24 | not yet computable | +4.36 | not yet computable | not yet fetched | not yet fetched | 2024 | medium |
| Zimbabwe | Southern | no pole chapter | -0.00 | -0.21 | +2.08 | +1.86 | +1.91 | -0.05 | 29.1 | modelled | 2025 | medium |
| Eritrea | East | no pole chapter | -2.31 | -0.12 | +1.98 | -0.45 | not yet fetched | not yet computable | 47.4 | modelled | 2015 | not yet computable |
| Egypt | North | 27 | +2.26 | +0.07 | +1.96 | +4.29 | +4.33 | -0.05 | 72.9 | modelled | 2023 | high |
| Libya | North | no pole chapter | -0.25 | -0.15 | +1.88 | +1.48 | +1.60 | -0.12 | 73.7 | modelled | 2012 | low |
| Botswana | Southern | 25 | -0.11 | +0.41 | +1.78 | +2.09 | +2.09 | -0.01 | 71.8 | modelled | 2024 | medium |
| South Africa | Southern | 25 | -0.48 | -0.45 | +1.61 | +0.68 | +0.67 | +0.01 | 82.7 | modelled | 2025 | high |
| Lesotho | Southern | 25 | -0.05 | -1.15 | +1.53 | +0.34 | +0.38 | -0.04 | 61.4 | modelled | 2024 | medium |
| Eswatini | Southern | 25 | +2.28 | -1.42 | +1.39 | +2.24 | +2.25 | -0.02 | 69.5 | modelled | 2023 | medium |
| Algeria | North | no pole chapter | +1.04 | -0.25 | +1.28 | +2.07 | +2.08 | -0.01 | 69.6 | modelled | 2024 | medium |
| Central African Republic | Central | 31 | +1.08 | +0.01 | +1.27 | +2.36 | +2.56 | -0.21 | 14.5 | modelled | not yet fetched | not yet computable |
| South Sudan | East | no pole chapter | -4.70 | -0.44 | +1.17 | -3.98 | -5.45 | +1.47 | 17.4 | modelled | not yet fetched | not yet computable |
| Morocco | North | 28 | +1.88 | -0.45 | +1.10 | +2.53 | +2.54 | -0.01 | 59.6 | modelled | 2024 | high |
| Tunisia | North | no pole chapter | +0.48 | -0.19 | +0.53 | +0.82 | +0.82 | -0.00 | 75.0 | modelled | 2023 | high |
| Cabo Verde | West | no pole chapter | +2.66 | -0.16 | +0.52 | +3.02 | +3.02 | -0.01 | 61.1 | modelled | 2022 | medium |
| Mauritius | East | no pole chapter | +2.02 | +0.61 | -0.24 | +2.39 | +2.40 | -0.01 | 81.8 | modelled | 2025 | high |